Atlas
ADF · Asymmetric Deviation Framework — semiconductor supply-chain research
Semiconductor supply-chain forecasts, timestamped before they resolve.
Each forecast is hashed and anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain when it is written, then graded mechanically against a rule fixed at the same moment. Open, confirmed and disconfirmed are all shown below, read live from the public ledger.
LIVE RECORD
9 sealed & open8 alpha · 1 calibration0 resolvedfirst resolves 15 Sep
The ledger
sealed · hashed · bitcoin-anchored · graded mechanicallyEvery position below was written down, hashed and anchored to Bitcoin before its outcome could be known. Click a tile for the sealed detail, its hash, and the proof. Days-to-resolution is colour-coded by proximity.
Open positions 9 sealed · soonest first · click a tile for full detail
TSMCalibrationrevenue · YoY≥ +40%30dresolves 15 Sep 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260727T075315Z-C8
- tag
- CONSENSUS-HOLDS
- address
- TSM | TSM__NVDA__leading_edge_wafers, TSM__AVGO__foundry_wafers, TSM__AMD__leading_edge_wafers
- claim
- TSM leading-edge demand (N3/N2 crowding by NVDA and Google) sustains >=40% YoY monthly revenue growth, confirming the +46% baked - calibration anchor.
- observable
- TSM September-2026 monthly revenue print, YoY [≥ +40%]
- fails if
- < +35%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 27 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-27T10:57:10Z
- sha-256
- 21c80846bea615618562885d96ec7796befead9b1eb77e068d079b731fe16d54
MEDIATEKAlpharevenue · YoY≥ +5%76dresolves 31 Oct 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260726T115635Z-C11
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- TSM, MEDIATEK
- claim
- A TSM->MEDIATEK leading-edge foundry edge exists; MediaTek is a major TSM customer yet sits fully unwired in the graph.
- observable
- MediaTek September-2026 monthly revenue print, YoY [≥ +5%]
- fails if
- ≤ -2.45%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 26 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-26T19:07:32Z
- sha-256
- dde5710e80d711f6dedb0405eabc2f794378a71576110e1c7fa97f74c6c8e950
MUAlphagross margin≤ 55%76dresolves 31 Oct 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260727T075315Z-C4
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- MU | MU__SKHYNIX__hbm_capacity
- claim
- MU is framed entirely as an HBM-scarcity winner (+349% baked), missing that its majority commodity-DRAM book faces CXMT supply - margin undershoots.
- observable
- MU GAAP consolidated gross margin, fiscal Q4 FY2026 (earnings release, ~late Sept 2026) [≤ 55%]
- fails if
- ≥ 60%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 27 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-27T10:57:10Z
- sha-256
- 21c80846bea615618562885d96ec7796befead9b1eb77e068d079b731fe16d54
AMKRAlpharevenue · YoY≤ +15%76dresolves 31 Oct 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260729T064012Z-C6
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- AMKR | AAPL__AMKR__osat_packaging, AMKR__TSM__adv_packaging_overflow
- claim
- AMKR is being framed as a CoWoS-overflow AI-packaging principal, but its dominant variable is the 29.8% Apple consumer-packaging book — a mature/seasonal mix that caps the AI upside (crosses packaging-osat -> handset via AAPL).
- observable
- AMKR quarterly revenue YoY growth [≤ +15%]
- fails if
- ≥ +19.82%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 29 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-29T15:48:01Z
- sha-256
- 93f7f6217f6d82c9c79c4190dd687eec82b57dd94452b2a94083f7c3c3b2b685
QCOMAlpharevenue · YoY> -6.68%91dresolves 15 Nov 2026+
- id
- QCOM-septq-rev-yoy-2026
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- QCOM | SAMSUNG__QCOM__handset_socs, AAPL__QCOM__handset_modems
- claim
- The street frames Qualcomm as a structural decliner (rev growth -0.0668, hold) via Apple modem insourcing, missing the offsetting new Samsung flagship SoC win plus 2027 price hike.
- observable
- QCOM FY2026 Sept-quarter (fiscal Q4) revenue YoY growth [> -6.68%]
- fails if
- ≤ -12%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 26 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-26T11:27:16Z
- sha-256
- 1c85178fd5d5f10f6d0ba43b1ef7484b7d50860a6454358b5094c87113a81fbe
KLAAlpharevenue · YoY≥ +15%91dresolves 15 Nov 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260729T064012Z-C5
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- KLA | TSM__KLA__process_control
- claim
- KLA's TSM concentration (0.19, conf 0.90) plus the N2 ramp is under-priced — KLA carries the lowest upside/weakest rating of the equipment group despite the strongest single-customer capex tailwind.
- observable
- KLA September-2026 quarter revenue YoY growth (FY2027 Q1, quarter ending 2026-09-30) [≥ +15%]
- fails if
- < +15%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 29 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-29T15:48:01Z
- sha-256
- 93f7f6217f6d82c9c79c4190dd687eec82b57dd94452b2a94083f7c3c3b2b685
LRCXAlpharevenue · YoY≥ +31%106dresolves 30 Nov 2026+
- id
- jobA-20260726T115635Z-C4
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- LRCX, ASX
- claim
- An LRCX->ASX advanced-packaging equipment supply edge exists, which the fully-isolated LRCX node cannot currently carry.
- observable
- LRCX latest-quarter revenue YoY growth (beats the cited +29% consensus) [≥ +31%]
- fails if
- < +29%
- window
- [1]
- sealed
- 26 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-26T19:07:32Z
- sha-256
- dde5710e80d711f6dedb0405eabc2f794378a71576110e1c7fa97f74c6c8e950
SKHYNIXAlphareturn spread≤ -10%137dresolves 31 Dec 2026+
- id
- HBM-zerosum-skhynix-spread-2026
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- MU, SKHYNIX, SAMSUNG | MU__SKHYNIX__hbm_capacity, SKHYNIX__NVDA__hbm, SAMSUNG__NVDA__hbm
- claim
- The memory cluster is priced as uniformly rallying (MU +64%, SKHYNIX +94%, SAMSUNG +97%), but the only negative edge on the board makes HBM share zero-sum, so at least one must disappoint.
- observable
- SKHYNIX total return minus mean total return of {MU, SAMSUNG}, seal date to 2026-12-31 [≤ -10%]
- fails if
- ≥ +10%
- window
- [2]
- sealed
- 26 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-26T11:27:16Z
- sha-256
- 1c85178fd5d5f10f6d0ba43b1ef7484b7d50860a6454358b5094c87113a81fbe
AVGOAlphashare price≤ $480168dresolves 31 Jan 2027+
- id
- AVGO-wafer-hike-multiple-2027
- tag
- ALPHA
- address
- AVGO, TSM | TSM__AVGO__foundry_wafers
- claim
- TSMC's 10% 2027 wafer price hike is a negative-sign cost shock to fabless margins (AVGO 0.95, AMD 0.85, NVDA 0.85) that the AI-demand narrative counts as strictly positive.
- observable
- AVGO share price (multiple/margin compression) [≤ $480]
- fails if
- ≥ $560
- window
- [2]
- sealed
- 26 Jul 2026 · 2026-07-26T11:27:16Z
- sha-256
- 1c85178fd5d5f10f6d0ba43b1ef7484b7d50860a6454358b5094c87113a81fbe
HONESTY NOTE
No hit-rate is claimed — nothing has reached its resolution date yet, so there is nothing to score. 2 sacrificial test drills sit in the ledger too, labelled and never deleted — dress rehearsals of the sealing machinery, not forecasts, so they are kept off this board. The repo is append-only: nothing is edited or removed once sealed.
Essays
2 posts · newest first · live from substackThe reasoning behind the positions — supply-chain structure, and what a deviation would have to look like to be real.
The list
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